Thursday 26 July 2018

Australia's education trends, reforms, Gonski and the government

The stats and impact on you

If you have a child or a sibling in the school system right now, or plan to, this then affects you. Australia has been on decline since the ~2000's and more rapidly since ~2006 regarding education performance (maths, science and reading). The proportion of top performers has dropped significantly, and the proportion of low performers has risen dramatically. This matches the rising social inequality and performance gap suffered by lower-income earners. In the OECD rankings, we rank 39th out of 41 regarding 'quality education'. Most people I am connected with on Facebook – you are my peers. You are generally around the same age or older than I. We had mostly good educations and made it through school before the sharp decline. The quality of education is now lower than ever before. We were lucky, and we shouldn’t be pulling up the ladder after ourselves.

Source: https://www.oecd.org/australia/pisa-2015-australia.htm



Media representation

It is interesting how this issue is represented by different media groups. For example, Nine frames it as "What needs to be done about Australian students falling behind the rest of the world". The Herald Sun: "Australian students fall behind in maths and science testing", "Australian students going backwards on literacy". The Australian: “Australian students fall behind rest of the world”, "Gonski 2.0 skims over key indicators such as discipline in schools". Note the problem being presented as a problem with students.
Compare that to other media groups who don't victim blame, but frame the problem as an educational one, such as The Guardian: "Report revealing Australia's educational decline a 'real worry', says Birmingham". The ABC: "Australian schools are in 'absolute decline' globally, says PISA report".
We can’t create a shitty, decaying education system, then blame students for ‘falling behind’. Our education system should strive to be the freely accessible ladder between social class, not a greasy snake, and Australian media should not be complicit in this.



Catholic and private schools

Private and Catholic schools are outperforming public schools. This trends with rising social inequality, and to address this, the Coalition government decided to fund around 200 non-government schools almost $750 million for “needs-based” funding. Even the Labor Party have pledged $250 million to Catholic schools. How is that right? Do high performing, private institutions really deserve money in excess of that of a public school, payed by the taxpayer? Do they actually need it? The Gonski 2.0 report, which determined private schools should receive reduced funding, have instead seen a higher proportion of taxpayer money as 'transitional' funding from the Coalition federal government. 24 of the private schools (100%) who were meant to have a taxpayer funding loss have all received an increase in 2018 so they can 'cope' with the Gonski 2.0 transition. Is that a joke?


The Germany case

In the year 2000, Germany was astonished at its low international education assessment ranking and underwent massive education reforms. Within 10 years, their education outcomes increased significantly in all the previously discussed metrics. Admittingly, it has fallen over the past 5 years or so, and I haven't done any research as to why. A quick summary of how they achieved this incredible change in such a short time: changed school structure to reduce impact of socio-economic background on student outcomes, they increased affordable access to German language training programs, standardisation and increased transparency of student performance data and metric collection, and increasing quality of teachers through further education and more stringent training.
To address the decline in Australian education outcomes, the Gonski Report was commissioned by Julia Gilliard and the Labor Party. The key points of the report were funding reforms, of which Catholic and private schools (and the Coalition government) have been deadset against. Also an additional $5 billion injection. It also recommended standardisation, and good data collection of student outcomes to determine effectiveness of reforms.
More detailed recommendations: “[Significant increases in funding should be delivered to the] government sector due to the significant numbers and greater concentration of disadvantaged students attending government schools”. The funding should: “consist of separate per student amounts for primary school students and secondary school students provide loadings for the additional costs of meeting certain educational needs. These loadings would take into account socioeconomic background, disability, English language proficiency, the particular needs of Indigenous students, school size, and school location”, “be based on actual resources used by schools already achieving high educational outcomes for their students over a sustained period of time”, and “recognise that schools with similar student populations require the same level of resources regardless of whether they are located in the government, Catholic or independent school sectors”.



The Gonski Report/s

The report was then removed from public access by the recently-elected Coalition government in 2013. Thankfully, it was preserved by Pandora, an Australian web archive (see references). The Gonski 2.0 report was commissioned by the Turnbull Coalition government, published in April 2018 (see references). It had 23 main recommendations, one of which is measuring student performance and education outcomes. The Labor government have pledged $280 million for an independent education institute to measure and evaluate these changes, so we can make informed, evidence-based policy. The Coalition has agreed to deliver ~$2,300 per student to schools per annum, which is far below the ~$13,000 recommended by the Gonski Report, but it’s a step in the right direction. Their reforms also included the transition packages to private and Catholic schools.
The key point of the original Gonski Report (2011), was “The decline in performance…of achievement indicates that Australia must focus on raising performance across the board if it wants to improve its productivity and competitiveness as a nation”. Sadly, these recommendations have not been taken seriously, and we’ve seen a continued increase in performance inequality. If I planned on having kids, I’d be worried.

What are your thoughts?


References for further reading




Sunday 22 July 2018

What pokemon is really missing: agency

I've played Pokemon since Yellow version in 1999, and played every mainline game. As I've grown, it seems Pokemon hasn't, and I'm really disappointed that it hasn't matured.
As I became more interested in games, something was made abundantly clear: choice is the most important thing. Choice gives your decisions meaning, and immerse you in the fictional world around you. Seeing the impact of your decisions on the world around you make you feel personal agency, or at least try to replicate it. 

Pokemon is missing two main things: choice, and by extension, stakes. For an RPG which allows probably one of the largest amount of party variety and customisation (Pokemon choice, movesets, items, stats, natures, abilities etc), it has surprisingly little amount of player autonomy. Nothing you do matters. If I say 'No' to an NPC, they don't take no for an answer. Why is that? Why give me the choice, then take it away?

Here are a few changes I would make to mainline Pokemon games:

  • All routes should be accessible from the start
  • Pokemon fainting should have consequences. I like the idea of injuries incurred when Pokemon faint, which could temporarily weaken them, even if fully healed.
  • Decisions should matter, and there should be stakes or missed content for failing missions
  • Capturing legendary Pokemon which control say, Space or Time only to shelve them permanently in Bill's hellscape AKA the PC, should cause massive problems of universal proportions. There should be a decision to capture but let them roam or something, so they can do their job. Sending them into legal dogfights seems so petty.
  • Pokecenters shouldn't be free, they should either cost money or maybe reduce a trainer Reputation statistic. Reputation could have negative consequences or positive ones, give you missions, access to certain gangs (joining Team Rocket etc), items or Pokemon.
These changes could even be part of a 'Veteran Mode', where kids will still get to button mash their way through games, but the challenge exists for more experienced players.

Sunday 15 July 2018

Easy 50 win streak for Battle Tree in Pokemon Sun and Moon

In Battle Tree, if you are looking to get a streak, you want a reliable strategy. This involves things like 100% accuracy moves. It's just not worth using lower accuracy moves as this will kill a streak. You also want a strategy that isn't too dependent on your opponents. So, here is the optimised team I used to beat Red in Super Singles (50th battle). Once I had this team set up, it worked on the first go. My current win streak is 60 and I have suspended for now. It has been incredibly successful and I wanted to share it. I know there are probably better teams out there, but if you want quick BP, then this may be the way to go.


Without further ado, here is the team:





Greninja 'Meniscus' @ Life Orb
Ability: Protean
Timid Nature
EVs: 252 SpA / 252 Spe / 4 HP
- Dark Pulse
- Ice Beam
- Grass Knot
- Surf

The goal is to use Greninja to wipe out as many Pokemon as possible, using Protean to change types for supereffective/neutral STAB Life-Orb-boosted attacks, while using it defensively for resistances. The moves chosen guarantee Neutral-Effectiveness against 336 and Super-Effectiveness against the remaining 582 Pokemon. If you have a choice between neutral Dark Pulse (80 base power) vs Ice Beam/Surf (90 base power) on what you think will be a 2HKO, choose Dark Pulse. The 20% flinch rate kicks in just enough for Greninja to sweep entire teams. Also Ice Beam > Surf due to the freeze chance, though be careful about Fighting, Rock and Steel moves.
Grass Knot is amazing. I recommend looking up the weights of Pokemon before attacking, so you can get the most of out Grass Knot. It's coverage and damage make this set viable.
For some reason, Protean seems to confuse the AI (due to the type changing) and makes it really easy to sweep teams alone. This guy took out ~35 teams by himself. I generally just use him until he dies, then switch into Dragonite or Dusknoir, depending on what I need done. This will also easily take out the Ferrothorn - Dark Pulse x 1/2 depending on the damage, then finish with the stronger Ice Beam.





Dragonite 'Flex' @ Flyinium Z
Ability: Multiscale
Adamant Nature
EVs: 252 Atk / 252 Spe / 4 HP
- Fly
- Earthquake
- Dragon Dance
- Extreme Speed

Dragonite has Multiscale for defense (generally Stealth Rocks aren't played much in Battle Tree, or Dragonite is in battle before they are played), so he usually comes in at 100% HP. Don't bother with Dragon Dance unless you really need it. Last thing you want is your physical sweeper to be Encore-locked or Taunted, since Dragonite isn't the fastest. Greninja has usually done some damage by this point, so Extreme Speed to finish off fast weakened foes/Earthquake and Fly for slower ones. OHKO the first major threat you see with Z-Fly, then proceed to finish the match with either Fly or Earthquake. Anything you think will remotely give you trouble, use Z-Fly on it. Don't fuck around. If you do get a Dragon Dance up (and I don't recommend leading with it unless you know what the opponent will do, you'll win the match. If say, Dusknoir has burned a physical attacker then dies, you can go for Dragon Dance, as you'll have Multiscale + the opponents reduced attack.
Basically just Z-Fly. Try not to switch Dragonite into attacks. It's not worth it. Leave that to Dusknoir. Keep Multiscale in play for as long as possible.





Dusknoir 'Nightshare' @ Leftovers
Ability: Pressure
Careful Nature
EVs: 252 HP / 148 Def / 110 SpD
- Earthquake
- Will-O-Wisp
- Pain Split
- Shadow Sneak

Dusknoir is a change of pace for this team. He is bulky as hell, allowing him to soak up hits from things like Jolteon and other physical and special sweepers. Even from the likes of Salamence and Lati@s. Being Ghost type, he gets immunity to Normal and Fighting moves. Generally lead with Will-O-Wisp unless you're fighting something with low defences and weak to Earthquake or Shadow Sneak. Shadow Sneak is a must, and Earthquake provides great coverage and damage. I don't usually switch Dusknoir in on attacks as I let Greninja die first. In some cases, if Greninja fails to weaken the foe, I'll switch during an attack.
This Pokemon has saved many matches and actually won two matches for via PP-stalling the opponent (due to Pressure, Leftovers and Pain Split). This thing is hard to kill. Sometimes you can just stall a monster for as long as possible, then switch in Dragonite after Dusknoir is KO'd. 



Extra points to make

This team is fairly well balanced, which is what I was striving for: Greninja as a special sweeper, Dragonite as a physical, bulky sweeper with priority, and Dusknoir for bulky, resistant staller. Dragonite could be Jolly, but he loves Adamant Extreme Speed.

IV spreads:
Greninja - 31 HP, x Atk, 31 Def, 31 SpA, 31 SpD, 31 Spe 
Dragonite - 31 HP, 31 Atk, 31 Def, x SpA, 31 SpD, 31 Spe 
Dusknoir - 31 HP, 31 Atk, 31 Def, 31 SpA, 31 SpD, 31 Spe 

Dusknoir @ Leftovers > Dusclops @ Eviolite. Dusknoir gets more attack, and Leftovers are essential in his stalling tactics here. 

The only Pokemon I had any trouble with was the Scrafty with Protect, Bulk Up and Drain Punch. How I beat it was using Dragon Dance x 5 on his Protect and Bulk Up turns turns, then OHKOing hitting with Extreme Speed.

This team beats Trick Room teams with priority moves (Extreme Speed and Shadow Sneak).

I was considering swapping Dragonite for Salamence for better attack, speed and bulk, but losing a godly priority move like Extreme Speed is just not worth it. It saved my run countless times. Though, Salamence is the strongest Pokemon available in Super Singles Sun and Moon IMHO. The Salamence set is the standard Mega-Salamence one:

Salamence @ Salamencite
Ability: Intimidate / Aerilate
EVs: 252 Atk / 252 Spe / 4 HP
Jolly Nature
- Dragon Dance
- Return/Double-Edge
- Roost

- Earthquake

Return for massive Flying STAB Damage (183.6 base power). I prefer it over Double-Edge (216 base power) as you'd take at least half your health in damage per Double-Edge hit. Battle Tree is all about longevity. Earthquake for coverage. Roost for survival. Honestly you probably won't need Roost much, with Greninja around.


So there it is. Have fun owning Red.

Monday 9 July 2018

The illusion of 'balance' in the context of evolution


It’s easy to mistake nature’s efficient processes of recycling energy and nutrients for the eastern concept of ‘balance’. However, nature doesn’t exist in a balance or ‘harmony’ - it is a constant battle resulting in continual allelic flux. An war ongoing since the very first self-replicating molecule, and this constant struggle for survival and proliferation isn’t just happening on a species or an ecosystem level, it’s also happening both within organisms and on a gene level. Most likely the layer cake goes even further; and this struggle for replication is also occurring on a DNA level, including non-coding regions.


Addressing balance through constant war

We see a snippet of the natural world during our short lives and can mistakenly equate it to balance and order. In reality, what we are seeing is just a tiny slice in time during the ongoing process of evolution. Evolution is basically organisms adapting to or carving out new niches, filling any gap that proves successful. This is what makes evolution so efficient at recycling energy and creatively and non-directionally rerouting entropy. Nothing can actually slow entropy, not even extremely cold temperatures! It's not just the bug eating the leaves, then the bird eating the bug, then the bird dying, and the bacteria and fungi eating the bird, turning it into soil for the plant to grow leaves. Bugs that avoid predation better than others are being selected for, as they are slowly acquiring genetic elements that may change their behaviour, or become more camouflaged, or produce noxious chemicals making them unattractive to eat. In turn, birds that have genes or have mutations in genes, for example that improve their eyesight keenness or depth of colour vision will be able to keep up with the shifting allelic frequencies of their prey. When the bird dies, the bacteria and fungi battle themselves, not just other species, but their own progeny and daughter cells for colonisation priority and therefore energy acquisition.
This is colloquially known as the Red Queen hypothesis, which occurs on multiple fronts. Organisms are constantly co-evolving to one up each other. Think the cheetah vs the gazelle. Over time, the cheetah has evolved a specialised body to increase speed and acceleration to catch the gazelle, as faster cheetahs catch gazelles and therefore survive to pass their genes on. In turn, gazelles have evolved to be hyper-aware of predation, and have greater stamina than the cheetah, as gazelles with greater stamina survive at a higher rate than those with lower stamina. A local, within lifetime example of this is if your adaptive immune system develops antibodies to surface markers of a particular pathogen. Individuals within that population that invariably have mutations in those surface markers will have greater fitness as they will now be flying under the radar of your adaptive immune system detection. They will therefore have greater opportunity and time to proliferate. This is similar to how antibiotic resistance works; variation within the population caused by random mutations eventually may eventually provide a selective advantage under particular circumstances and will therefore proliferate. Antibiotic resistance is of particular gravity, because the genes themselves are so useful at increasing genetic fitness of bacteria that they been selected for on mobile genetic elements, or plasmids. Many of these are transferred horizontally between bacteria via mating, or via natural transformation.

Nothing is easy, and everything is always changing. But make no mistake, this isn’t balance. This is war.


Niche acquisition

Evolution by its non-directional temper will find ways to select for new niche acquisition, and reward the new king of the new, unutilised hill. Think of a small but ground-breaking tweak to the infinite monkey-typewriter theorem; only monkeys that make any progress in writing Shakespeare get paid in food. Now you have selection for monkeys that make progress in writing Shakespeare. Let’s hope their success is influenced by genetic element/s!
If an energy source is currently being unused, then evolution will favour organisms that can utilise that niche more effectively than those which can’t. It is such an elegant motor by which the universe nondirectionally propels itself and matter into complexity, capable of self-replication. That is what we are really talking about on a fundamental level – replication and the ability to pass on information. If something can replicate, it has another crack at existence, and therefore a greater chance at continued existence, when compared to something that can’t replicate. Life eventually blooms as these self-replicating molecules proliferate and accumulate over time, like a billion-year PCR. That’s a pretty simple and elegant process which births the biosphere and all it’s highly complex and competitive inter- and intra-relationships, as some of these self-replicating molecules can replicate better than others, depending on a myriad of complex situational factors. Basically, if it works, it survives, generally speaking. There are obvious exceptions such as when genes proliferate despite an organism’s best interest. But hey, if it still works, and the organism still has enough fitness to replicate itself, then it doesn’t really matter. Even domesticated animals fall into this; they had genes which were selected for (by humans), and have continued to proliferate, despite humans being responsible for the extinction of ninety-nine percent of all living species on the planet. Yet gourmet herbivores outnumber us over a hundred-fold. Sure, it’s not the traditional evolutionary path, but it’s still evolution nonetheless. We’re not exempt.


The battle within organisms

Looking inward, we also find the war occurs within organisms; within yourself. An example of this is development of cancers, which are a result of a build-up of just the right mutations that mess with cellular replication. Cancer is interesting, because you get cancers all the time, but your body will correctly dispose of it. It’s when your body doesn’t get to it, it can proliferate and get out of hand, developing the pathology we know as cancer. Evolution within an organism is tricky, because in the case of cancer, cancers that can feed via nutrient silk roads (blood vessels) while avoiding immune system detection, can grow happily while weaker cancers are destroyed. This is selection pressure within the organism which results in spread of stronger, well-equipped cancers. The same thing applies to drug-resistant tumours; only the strong survive, which will most likely go on consume the host. Cancer also means, generally speaking that we beat life. The only thing left to kill us, is our own shitty, mutation rate. Ageing in fact, is most likely caused by accumulation of mutations. Someone fuse SSo7d to my polymerases please!


The case for DNA analysis

The battle is also occurring not just within the organism, but on a gene level – and it’s more elegant than you’d think. Originally, evolution was deciphered using comparative morphology with an alley-oop from the fossil record. Comparative morphology is a crude tool which can often result in incorrect classification and confuddlings, such as the turtle’s incorrect classification as an anapsid due the lack of temporal fenestrae, or holes in the skull near the temple region. They were correctly placed in the tree of life as Diapsida by researchers, who looked at turtle DNA and worked out that it was closely related to other diapsids (lizards and snakes), which have two temporal fenestrae. This means it evolved much later than anapsids, which were early-build reptiles. This is supported by the fossil record. It turns out that part of the Testudine strategy was to armour up. Heavy bone growths covering the two holes in their heads, along with development of a hard shell were selected for, allowing them to outlast even the dinosaurs. Organisms that aren’t related by a fairly recent common ancestor but share similar environments can develop similar morphological traits. This is known as convergent evolution. This is a key chink in the armour of morphological analysis, as the information required to sort and organise higher organisms simply isn’t encoded.
However, that’s not to say morphology isn’t important; to be able to divine the concept of evolution using the rough guide of morphology was an amazing feat. What’s more amazing was the role synchronicity played, as it was articulated by two men who’d never spoken or met, at around the same time, Alfred Russel Wallace and Charles Darwin. The granularity of analysing DNA in the perspective of evolution is mind blowing. There are issues with DNA analysis, such as SNP reversions, horizontal gene transfer, convergent evolution etc, so it makes sense that we are looking at all the evidence and seeing what’s most likely true. We won’t ever really know for sure, unless we were to rebuild a new Earth with all its original elements and compounds and local star system environment and watch it in fast-forward, but even then…we’d still need thousands of simulations to get a clear understanding of what most likely happened. All that work to prove that turtles are diapsids, not anapsids? Sure, why not. The future will be an interesting place, provided intelligence isn’t selected against by The Great Filter.


The battle on a gene level

Genes don’t want to replicate themselves as they don’t really want anything. However if they are capable of replicating, then they will. Therefore, due to the nature of selection, if they provide advantages to an organism, they will continue to hold their place within the replicating organism. Early, self-replicating molecules gave up their individual autonomy when they started working together with other self-replicating, to make organisms. What we see when we look at an organism are the victors of a GENErational war. The present genes (most likely but not always) provided an advantage to an organism and allowed themselves to be replicated historically all the way down through to the organism you are now looking at. They are genetic remnants; palaeological artefacts passed down since the dawn of the first self-replicating molecule over the last ~four billion years on this planet. Therefore, these genes won their war, for now. But it’s a constant battle. If they stop providing benefits, then they may be lost over time. Alternatively, they can blackmail an organism into keeping them, by taking over a role of another gene or attaching themselves to or near essential genes. There are many strategies genes rely on which result in their continued proliferation within the biosphere, and we probably don’t even understand one percent of their unconscious tactics. Genes aren’t consciously doing these things, but if they continue to persist within the organism without reducing its fitness too detrimentally, we will continue to see those genes accumulate within a population. Protein moonlighting is such strong evidence for evolution and its ability to efficiently problem solve. Having one gene perform multiple functions removes ancestral necessities such as gene duplication events or multiple genes. It’s more efficient, and the gene itself now has an insurance policy in case its original function becomes outdated. Initially, the singular-function gene would have evolved, but over time, instead of evolving new genes, current genes are re-purposed while still retaining their original functional protein domains, therefore encoding more complex information into the same amount of genetic material. Even crazier is that smaller genes can be encoded within the same DNA sequence, running in either direction. The efficiency is incredible, and unconsciously genius. It will take lifetimes to tease the complexities apart.


Life as a consequence of entropy?

No matter what, all life is going to come to an end, it is something we only truly experience in one direction, with the arrow of time. Entropy demands it, and it is the price all life pays for existence. It is the currency by which we measure life. Time is in all likelihood a consequence of entropy. Life, in all probability is a consequence of time. As matter spreads and energy runs out, we go from order to chaos. Atomic concentrations diffuse outwards and decay. Energy flutters, and flourishes and dances around and recollects parts of itself, increasing it’s already impressive efficient recycling process. This isn’t an intelligent process. It’s just evolution, selecting for and rewarding novel ways to obtain and utilise energy. It’s not balance, it’s just entropy non-directionally finding more creative ways to recycle energy over time through evolution. To fill as many niches and gaps as possible. If there is an unutilised resource out there and enough time, evolution will eventually select for organisms that can turn a once inhospitable environment, unobtainable resource or indigestible compound into usable substrate.

How can you not be fascinated by the elegant, ever-changing, violent nature of evolution? It’s fucking beautiful.